Paperback edition of the international bestseller, which presents a concept that changes the way we look at the world. A Black Swan is a highly unlikely event, it's cannot be easily explained. Examples are the astonishing success of Google and the tragedy of 9/11. For fans of Freakonomics, The Wisdom Of Crowds and The Tipping Point. 'A fascinating study...' Larry Elliot, Guardian

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? And, what can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? This book shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.