Kit Yates

A fascinating exploration of how we can make better accessible mathematically informed predictions about the world around us

A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip PullmanAbsolutely fascinatingJames OBrienAn exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than everDr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People· Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?· How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?· Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?· How do you prevent a nuclear war?Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about whats in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

A matemática é uma constante do mundo e o que aprendermos com ela pode significar a diferença entre o sucesso e o desastreA matemática está sempre presente na nossa vida, da forma como comunicamos com os outros a forma como viajamos, trabalhamos ou relaxamos.Mas so poucos os que compreendem o seu verdadeiro poder, pois a influencia da matematica no se fica pelo dia a dia no escritorio ou em casa, estendendo-se aos tribunais e hospitais.Neste livro extraordinario, Kit Yates explora historias veridicas em que a utilizaço ou a ma utilizaço da matematica teve um papel decisivo: pacientes incapacitados com diagnosticos errados, empresarios falidos devido a algoritmos imperfeitos, vitimas inocentes de erros judiciais ou de falhas de software e ate pais que perderam os seus filhos, sempre devido a equivocos matematicos.Mas ha esperança: para alem de o autor nos alertar para os perigos com exemplos reais, tambem nos oferece ferramentas matematicas simples que nos ajudaro a tomar decises acertadas numa sociedade cada vez mais baseada em numeros.

¿Y si las matemáticas fueran la única forma de comprender cómo te sientes, de entender la sociedad, de intentar articular el mundo?De encontrar el mejor asiento en el tren y la cola más rápida en la fruteria, de calmarte ante un diagnostico medico inesperado, de aprender del desastre de Chernobil o del juicio de Amanda Knox, de detener epidemias mortales y victimas de errores judiciales, de estudiar nuestro pasado para ahorrarnos un futuro peor, de saber cuantos caracoles hay en un jardin. Esto ultimo, preguntado por su hijo, empujo al prestigioso matematico Kit Yates a intentar buscar como explicar la magia aplicada de los numeros que describen nuestra vida y la del planeta.Todo en este planeta se puede articular mediante las matematicas y, sin embargo, este no es un libro para matematicos. Tampoco es un libro de matematicas al uso. Es un libro sobre como nos ayudan a entender el mundo, la sociedad, la vida."Yates nos muestra como nuestra vida privada y social esta empapada de matematicas. Tan profundamente serio como tremendamente entretenido para los que no sabemos mucho de numeros. Un libro exquisitamente interesante."IAN McEWAN "Un narrador deslumbrante. A traves de historias y ejemplos increibles, muestra como las matematicas son el corazon palpitante de la vida moderna. Una voz excitante." MARCUS DU SAUTOY "Un libro sobre la confluencia de las matematicas y las decisiones vitales. Un viaje alucinante sobre las creencias y la verdad." THE TIMES

*SELECTED AS ONE OF THE SUNDAY TIMES SCIENCE BOOKS OF THE YEAR*"This is an exquisitely interesting book. Its a deeply serious one too and, for those like me who have little maths, its delightfully readable" - IAN MCEWAN"An exciting new voice in the world of science communication" - MARCUS DU SAUTOY"An extremely thoughtful, articulate and accessible insight into mathematics in the real world" - ALEX BELLOS"Kit Yates is a brilliant explainer and storyteller"- STEVEN STROGATZ__________Maths is the story of the world around us, and the wisdom it gives us can be the difference between success and disaster.We are all doing maths all the time, from the way we communicate with each other to the way we travel, from how we work to how we relax. Many of us are aware of this. But few of us really appreciate the full power of maths - the extent to which its influence is not only in every office and every home, but also in every courtroom and hospital ward.In this eye-opening and extraordinary book, Yates explores the true stories of life-changing events in which the application - or misapplication - of mathematics has played a critical role: patients crippled by faulty genes and entrepreneurs bankrupted by faulty algorithms; innocent victims of miscarriages of justice and the unwitting victims of software glitches. We follow stories of investors who have lost fortunes and parents who have lost children, all because of mathematical misunderstandings.Along the way, Yates arms us with simple mathematical rules and tools that can help us make better decisions in our increasingly quantitative society. You will discover why its always sensible to question a statistic, often vital to ask for a second opinion and sometimes surprisingly handy to stick to the 37% rule...

¿Y si las matemáticas fueran la única forma de comprender cómo te sientes, de entender la sociedad, de intentar articular el mundo?De encontrar el mejor asiento en el tren y la cola más rápida en la fruteria, de calmarte ante un diagnostico medico inesperado, de aprender del desastre de Chernobil o del juicio de Amanda Knox, de detener epidemias mortales y victimas de errores judiciales, de estudiar nuestro pasado para ahorrarnos un futuro peor, de saber cuantos caracoles hay en un jardin. Esto ultimo, preguntado por su hijo, empujo al prestigioso matematico Kit Yates a intentar buscar como explicar la magia aplicada de los numeros que describen nuestra vida y la del planeta.Todo en este planeta se puede articular mediante las matematicas y, sin embargo, este no es un libro para matematicos. Tampoco es un libro de matematicas al uso. Es un libro sobre como nos ayudan a entender el mundo, la sociedad, la vida.