IAN AYRES

Companies used to rely on human experts and their years of experience to guide them. Now, cutting-edge organizations are mining the data and crunching numbers instead, to come up with more accurate, less biased predictions. As Freakonomics detailed, statistical analysis can reveal the secret levers of causation. But economist Ian Ayres argues that thats only part of the story - super crunching is revolutionizing the way we all make decisions. Beginning with examples of the mathematician who out-predicted wine buffs in determining the best vintages, and the sports scouts who now use statistics rather than intuition to pick winners, Super Crunchers exposes the world of data-miners, introducing the people and the techniques. It illuminates the hidden patterns all around us. No businessperson, academic, student, or consumer (statistically thats everyone) should make another move without getting to grips with thinking-by-numbers - the new way to be smart, savvy and statistically superior.

Hay muchas grandes ideas que wstán esperando a ser descubiertas...¿Por ´ué no hacer que los comerciales le paguen a usted por su tiempo cuando le llaman para venderle algo? O, ¿por qué no ofrecerle u

Hay muchas grandes ideas que sólo están esperando a ser descubiertas... ¿Por qué no hacer que los comerciales le paguen a usted por su tiempo cuando le llaman para venderle algo?... La capacidad de crear soluciones nuevas y practicas no es algo solo al alcance de unos pocos. Los autores de este libro muestran como la innovacion es una habilidad que puede enseñarse y adquirirse, mediante una serie de herramientas generadoras de ideas sencillas, divertidas y efectivas. Un libro inspirador e ingenioso que nos hara ver las cosas que rodean nuestra vida diaria con una perspectiva diferente y nos ayudara a encontrar nuevas oportunidades de negocio usando nuestra curiosidad natural. Ilustrado con ejemplos de todos los aspectos de la vida, no solo muestra como generar ideas, sino, como evaluar su potencial real y sortear las barreras en el camino hacia su aplicacion efectiva.

Diversification provides a well-known way of getting something close to a free lunch: by spreading money across different kinds of investments, investors can earn the same return with lower risk (or a much higher return for the same amount of risk). This strategy, introduced nearly fifty years ago, led to such strategies as index funds. What if we were all missing out on another free lunch thats right under our noses? In Lifecycle Investing, Barry Nalebuff and Ian Ayres -- two of the most innovative thinkers in business, law, and economics -- have developed tools that will allow nearly any investor to diversify their portfolios over time. By using leveraging when young -- a controversial idea that sparked hate mail when the authors first floated it in the pages of Forbes& -- investors of all stripes, from those just starting to plan to those getting ready to retire, can substantially reduce overall risk while improving their returns. In Lifecycle Investing, readers will learn: How to figure out the level of exposure and leverage thats right for you How the Lifecycle Investing strategy would have performed in the historical market Why it will work even if everyone does it When not to adopt the Lifecycle Investing strategy Clearly written and backed by rigorous research, Lifecycle Investing presents a simple but radical idea that will shake up how we think about retirement investing even as it provides a healthier nest egg in a nicely feathered nest.

Could you lose weight if you put $20,000 at risk? Would you finally set up your billing software if it meant that your favorite charity would earn a new contribution? If youve ever tried to meet a goal and came up short, the problem may not have been that the goal was too difficult or that you lacked the discipline to succeed. From giving up cigarettes to increasing your productivity at work, you may simply have neglected to give yourself the proper incentives. In Carrot and Sticks, Ian Ayres, the New York Times bestselling author of Super Crunchers, applies the lessons learned from behavioral economicsthe fascinating new science of rewards and punishmentsto introduce readers to the concept of commitment contracts: an easy but high-powered strategy for setting and achieving goals already in use by successful companies and individuals across America. As co-founder of the website stickK.com (where people have entered into their own commitment contracts and collectively put more than $3 million on the line), Ayres has developed contractsincluding the one he honored with himself to lose more than twenty pounds in one yearthat have already helped many find the best way to help themselves at work or home. Now he reveals the strategies that can give you the impetus to meet your personal and professional goals, including how to motivate your employees create a monthly budget set and meet deadlines improve your diet learn a foreign language finish a report or project youve been putting off clear your desk Ayres shares engaging, often astounding, real-life stories that show the carrot-and-stick principle in action, from the compulsive sneezer who needed a stick (the potential loss of $50 per week to a charity he didnt like) to those who need a carrot with their stick (the New York Times columnist who quit smoking by pledging a friend $5,000 per smoke . . . if she would do the same for him). Youll learn why you might want to hire a professional nagger whom youll do anything to avoidno, your spouse wont do!and how you can hand-tie your future self to accomplish what you want done now. Youll find out how a New Zealand ad exec successfully sold his smoking addiction, and why Zappos offered new employees $2,000 to quit cigarettes. As fascinating as it is practical, as much about human behavior as about how to change it, Carrots and Sticks is sure to be one of the most talked-about books of the year.

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER With new information on crunching your own numbers to get the edge the experts haveAn international sensationand still the talk of the relevant blogospherethis Wall Street Journal and New York Times business bestseller examines the power in numbers. Today more than ever, number crunching affects your life in ways you might not even imagine. Intuition and experience are no longer enough to make the grade. In order to succeedeven survivein our data-based world, you need to become statistically literate. Cutting-edge organizations are already crunching increasingly larger databases to find the unseen connections among seemingly unconnected things to predict human behavior with staggeringly accurate results. From Internet sites like Google and Amazon that use filters to keep track of your tastes and your purchasing history, to insurance companies and government agencies that every day make decisions affecting your life, the brave new world of the super crunchers is happening right now. No one who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Ian Ayress engrossing and enlightening book.