Gerd Gigerenzer

A new eye-opener on how we can make better decisions--by the author of "Gut Feelings" In this age of big data we often trust that expert analysis--whether it's about next year's stock market or a person's risk of getting cancer--is accurate. But, as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer reveals in his latest book, "Risk Savvy," most of us, including doctors, lawyers, and financial advisors, often misunderstand statistics, leaving us misinformed and vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there's hope. In "Risk Savvy," Gigerenzer gives us an essential guide to the science of good decision making, showing how ordinary people can make better decisions for their money, their health, and their families. Here, Gigerenzer delivers the surprising conclusion that the best results often come from considering less information and listening to your gut.

Reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. This book analyses the heuristics that people actually use to make good decisions and shows us how we can become better decision-makers ours

Reflection and reason are overrated Much better qualified to help us make decisions is the cognitive, emotional, and social repertoire we call intuition_a suite of gut feelings that have evolved over the millennia specifically for making decisions "Gladwell drew heavily on Gigerenzers research But Gigerenzer goes a step further by explaining just why our gut instincts are so often right...

á ¿Hasta que punto intervienen el puro instinto en nuestras decisiones? ¿Cómo funciona nuestra intuición? ¿Que se esconde tras nuestro comportamiento moral, más allá de la reflexión y el razonamiento? ¿Que procesos instintivos intervienen en el salto de un portero de futbol para bloquear un balon, en la decision de unos padres por una u otra escuela para su hijo, en la eleccion de pareja de un amante, en la capacidad de unos simples aficionados para convulsionar el mercado de valores son la unica ayuda de sencillas reglas empiricas? El proceso para tomar decisiones correctas no consiste en amasar una gran cantidad de informacion, sino en descartar intuitivamente aquella que no necesitamos. Decisiones intuitivas propone un analisis de los multiples factores e influencias (innatas y adquiridas) que condicionan nuestro proceso de decision. Este libro, fruto de mas de diez años de novedosas investigaciones por parte de uno de los mas prestigiosos cientificos en la materia, indaga sobre la influencia del instinto en nuestras decisiones y llega a conclusiones sorprendentes. a Una revolucion en la ciencia cognitiva que asesta un fenomenal golpe a favor de la cordura en la aproximacion a la racionalidad humana, Herbert Simon, premio Nobel de Eco

Enlightening impassioned powerful The Times From dating apps and self driving cars to facial recognition and the justice system the increasing presence of AI has been widely championed but there are limitations and risks too In this book Gigerenzer shows how humans are often the greatest source of uncertainty and when people are involved unwavering trust in complex algorithms can become a recipe for disaster We need now more than ever to arm ourselves with knowledge that will help us make better decisions in a digital age Filled with practical examples and cutting edge research How to Stay Smart in a Smart World examines the growing role of AI at all levels of daily life with refreshing clarity This book is a life raft in a sea of information and an urgent invitation to actively shape the world in which we want to live Masterful an essential read Gary Klein author of Sources of Power One of the world s most eminent psychologists Spectator

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics.Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we havent learned statistical thinking, we dont understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers dont understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

For anyone who's read "Blink" and wants to know more, this book will appeal to business people, scienctists and the plain curious. Gigerenzer, a psychologist and behavioural expert, reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision making.

"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - New ScientistHowever much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk?Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. Here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.

Um remédio eficaz e acessível contra a desinformação, este livro é um guia essencial para tomarmos decisões inteligentes e seguras.Na era da big data , é fácil acreditar que nossas previsões para o f

A fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from Gerd Gigerenzer, the author of Reckoning with Risk.Risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. Yet for many important decisions, were often presented with statistics and probabilities that we dont really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. But what if they dont quite understand the way the information is presented either? How do we make sure were asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? Is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner?This entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we dont have all the information and know what to do about it. Gerd Gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. He shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives.Gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous Steven PinkerCatchily optimistic and slyly funny GuardianGerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including Reckoning with Risk.

El proceso para tomar decisiones correctas no consiste en amasar una gran cantidad de información, sino en descartar intuitivamente aquella que no necesitamos. Decisiones instintivas propone un análisis de los multiples factores e influencias (innatas y adquiridas) que condicionan nuestro proceso de decision. Este libro, fruto de mas de diez años de investigacion por parte de uno de los mas prestigiosos cientificos en la materia, llega a conclusiones sorprendentes.