John Kay

Desde hace décadas, el paradigma predominante en el mundo de la política, las finanzas o la economía reduce la incertidumbre a meros cálculos probabilísticos. El riesgo es habitualmente una cifra que se puede calcular, y las posibilidades de que un suceso tenga lugar deben medirse con ecuaciones o estadisticas. El problema es que nada de esto es cierto. Como hemos aprendido en los ultimos años, con sucesos impredecibles (de la crisis financiera de 2007 a la pandemia del Covid), vivimos en un estado de constante "Incertidumbre Radical". Esta obra de Mervyn King y John Kay nos recuerda que nuestro entorno no es modelizable. Ni lo que pasara mañana se puede anticipar con una hoja de calculo.En el corazon de "Incertidumbre Radical" yace una distincion fundamental entre dos tipos de incertidumbre: la "resoluble" y la "radical". La primera se refiere a eventos repetibles y predecibles, como el lanzamiento de una moneda. En el segundo grupo se engloban la mayoria de las decisiones criticas en la vida desde si invertir o no en una empresa a la estrategia geopolitica de un pais. Nos encontramos ante eventos cuyos eterminantes son tan complejos e imprevisibles que no permiten que les asignemos probabilidades creibles.En este contexto, los autores critican la falsa precision de los modelos economicos modernos, herederos de la teoria de juegos y de la hipotesis del mercado eficiente, que pretenden cuantificar lo incuantificable y generar una ilusion de control. Kay y King reivindican una toma de decisiones mucho mas humana: imprecisa, cambiante, que usa la intuicion en un proceso de prueba y error, aparentemente menos cientifico, pero mucho mas eficiente en el fondo. "Una guia elegante y cuidadosa para reflexionar sobre la economia, especialmente en tiempos de incertidumbre" - The New York Times Book Review"Pocas veces la publicacion de un libro es tan oportuna" - The Wall Street Journal"En este libro, profundo y practico, Kay y King admiten lo obvio, que en ambitos cruciales no sabemos, no sabremos y no podremos saber lo que esta pasando; y muestra, sin embargo, como conservar nuestra capacidad para actuar" - Paul Romer, premio Nobel de Economia 2018"John Kay y Mervyn King quieren que mas gente comprenda la antigua distincion entre riesgo e incertidumbre, olvidada por una generacion de economistas" - Niall Ferguson"Muchos libros hacen que el lector este mejor informado. Este es uno de los pocos que hace que el lector sea mucho mas sabio. Vivaras de forma diferente y mejor despues de comprender las lecciones fundamentales de Kay y King sobre la incertidumbre radical" - Lawrence H. Summers

A brilliant new bookDaily TelegraphWell written . . . and often entertainingThe TimesA sparkling analysisProspectWhen uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives.This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.

An original, widely-applicable concept from one of the world's foremost economists.

Shortlisted for the Orwell Prize 2016We all depend on the finance sector. We need it to store our money, manage our payments, finance housing stock, restore infrastructure, fund retirement and support new business. But these roles comprise only a tiny sliver of the sectors activity: the vast majority of lending is within the finance sector. So what is it all for? What is the purpose of this activity? And why is it so profitable?John Kay, a distinguished economist with wide experience of the financial sector, argues that the industrys perceived profitability is partly illusory, and partly an appropriation of wealth created elsewhere - of other peoples money. The financial sector, he shows, has grown too large, detached itself from ordinary business and everyday life, and has become an industry that mostly trades with itself, talks to itself, and judges itself by reference to standards which it has itself generated. And the outside world has itself adopted those standards, bailing out financial institutions that have failed all of us through greed and mismanagement.We need finance, but today we have far too much of a good thing. In Other Peoples Money John Kay shows in his inimitable style what has gone wrong in the dark heart of finance.

In this ambitious and wide-ranging book, John Kay unravels the truth about markets. He explains why market economies outperformed socialist or centrally directed ones, but also why the imposition of market institutions often fails. Kay's search for the truth about markets takes him from the shores of Lake Zürich to the streets of Mumbai, through evolutionary psychology and moral philosophy, to the flower market at San Remo and Christies' saleroom in New York. Through this range of material he shows that market economies function because they are embedded in a social, political and cultural context, and cannot work otherwise.

Capitalism faltered at the end of the 1990s as corporations were rocked by fraud, the stock-market bubble burst and the American business model unfettered self-interest, privatization and low tax faced a storm of protest. But what are the alternatives to the mantras of market fundamentalism?Leading economist John Kay unravels the truth about markets, from Wall Street to Switzerland, from Russia to Mumbai, examining why some nations are rich and some poor, why one-size-fits-all globalization hurts developing countries and why markets can work but only in a humane social and cultural context. His answers offer a radical new blueprint for the future.

Two of the UKs leading economists call for an end to extreme individualism as the engine of prosperityprovocative but thought-provoking and nuancedTelegraphThroughout history, successful societies have created institutions which channel both competition and co-operation to achieve complex goals of general benefit. These institutions make the difference between societies that thrive and those paralyzed by discord, the difference between prosperous and poor economies. Such societies are pluralist but their pluralism is disciplined.Successful societies are also rare and fragile. We could not have built modernity without the exceptional competitive and co-operative instincts of humans, but in recent decades the balance between these instincts has become dangerously skewed: mutuality has been undermined by an extreme individualism which has weakened co-operation and polarized our politics.Collier and Kay show how a reaffirmation of the values of mutuality could refresh and restore politics, business and the environments in which people live. Politics could reverse the moves to extremism and tribalism; businesses could replace the greed that has degraded corporate culture; the communities and decaying places that are home to many could overcome despondency and again be prosperous and purposeful. As the world emerges from an unprecedented crisis we have the chance to examine society afresh and build a politics beyond individualism.

El sector financiero es, sin duda, necesario, pero… ¿lo es también todo lo que le rodea? En los últimos tiempos, el mundo de las finanzas ha crecido demasiado, se ha distanciado de los negocios ordin

El sector financiero es, sin duda, necesario, pero… ¿lo es tambien todo lo que le rodea? En los últimos tiempos, el mundo de las finanzas ha crecido demasiado, se ha distanciado de los negocios ordin