IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

With a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the "new economy," and the larger implications of "irrational exuberance." In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today''s explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan''s infamous 1996 reference, "irrational exuberance," to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller''s unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing--a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional. In this timely and prescient update of his celebrated 2000 bestseller, Robert Shiller returns to the topic that gained him international fame: market volatility. Having predicted the stock market collapse that began just one month after the first edition was published, he now expands the book to cover other markets that have become volatile, particularly the recently red-hot housing market. He includes a full chapter on domestic and international housing prices in historical perspective. Shiller amasses impressive evidence to support his argument that the recent housing market boom bears many similarities to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, and may eventually be followed by declining home prices for years to come. After stocks plummeted when the bubble burst in 2000, investors moved their money into housing. This precipitated the inflated real estate prices not only in America but around the world, Shiller maintains. Hence, irrational exuberance did not disappear--it merely reappeared in other settings. Building on the original edition, Shiller draws out the psychological origins of volatility in financial markets, this time folding real estate into his analysis. He broadens the evidence that investing in capital markets of all kinds in the modern free-market economy is inherently unstable--subject to the profoundly human influences captured in Alan Greenspan''s now-famous phrase, "irrational exuberance.&