Duncan J. Watts

Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? And does higher pay incentivize people to work harder?If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life-explanations that seem obvious once we know the answer-are less useful than they seem. Watts shows how commonsense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into thinking that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.Only by understanding how and when common sense fails can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present-an argument that has important implications in politics, business, marketing, and even everyday life.

Porque a Mona Lisa é a pintura mais famosa do mundo? Por que o Facebook faz tanto sucesso e outros sites de redes sociais não? Quanto um CEO pode realmente afetar o desempenho de uma empresa? E salár

By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our understanding of the present and better plan for the future. Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these influencers in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.Watts argument has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

Duncan J. Watts, uno de los principales arquitectos de la teoría de las redes, explica en la presente obra la innovadora investigación que él y otros científicos están realizando para entender el funcionamiento de las redes que conectan nuestro planeta. Escrito por uno de los jovenes cientificos de primera linea mundial, este libro sabe despertar el entusiasmo del lector. Las ideas de Watts acerca de las interconexiones que nos unen unos a otros, desde los enlaces en Internet hasta los principales centros intermodales de transporte y el mundo de las finanzas, pasando por las redes de relaciones sexuales por donde se transmite la pandemia del SIDA en todo el mundo, ofrecen un marco de referencia nuevo y dinamico para comprender nuestra sociedad global y sus cambios. Watts explica por que estamos tan estrechamente conectados en nuestros mundos pequeños y, a su vez, conecta al lector con los principales pensadores de hoy en dia sobre el nuevo y apasionante campo de la teoria de las redes. Jeffrey D. Sachs, director del Earth Institute, Columbia University