David Spiegelhalter

Probably the UKs greatest living statistician TelegraphFrom the UKs statistical national treasure, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we dont know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

La guía definitiva del pensamiento estadístico.Las estadísticas están en todas partes, tanto en la ciencia como en los negocios, y en los medios de comunicación populares cientos de veces al día. En esta era de los grandes datos, un conocimiento basico de la estadistica es mas importante que nunca si queremos separar los hechos de la ficcion, los adornos ostentosos de las pruebas en bruto, y mas aun si esperamos participar en el futuro, en lugar de ser simples espectadores.En El arte de la estadistica, el reconocido estadistico David Spiegelhalter muestra a los oyentes como extraer conocimientos de los datos en bruto centrandose en los conceptos y las conexiones que hay detras de las matematicas. Basandose en ejemplos del mundo real para introducir cuestiones complejas, nos muestra como la estadistica puede ayudarnos a determinar cual fue el pasajero mas afortunado del Titanic, si un famoso asesino en serie podria haber sido capturado antes y si el cribado del cancer de ovarios es beneficioso.El arte de la estadistica no solo nos muestra como los matematicos han utilizado la ciencia estadistica para resolver estos problemas, sino que tambien nos enseña como podemos pensar como estadisticos. Aprendemos a aclarar nuestras preguntas, suposiciones y expectativas al abordar un problema, y -quizas aun mas importante- aprendemos a interpretar responsablemente las respuestas que recibimos.

I couldnt imagine a better guidebook for making sense of a tragic and momentous time in our lives. Covid by Numbers is comprehensive yet concise, impeccably clear and always humane Tim HarfordHow many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime?This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account.In Covid by Numbers, they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

A statistical national treasure Jeremy Vine, BBC Radio 2Required reading for all politicians, journalists, medics and anyone who tries to influence people (or is influenced) by statistics. A tour de forcePopular ScienceDo busier hospitals have higher survival rates? How many trees are there on the planet? Why do old men have big ears? David Spiegelhalter reveals the answers to these and many other questions - questions that can only be addressed using statistical science.Statistics has played a leading role in our scientific understanding of the world for centuries, yet we are all familiar with the way statistical claims can be sensationalised, particularly in the media. In the age of big data, as data science becomes established as a discipline, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever. In The Art of Statistics, David Spiegelhalter guides the reader through the essential principles we need in order to derive knowledge from data. Drawing on real world problems to introduce conceptual issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether serial killer Harold Shipman could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. Shines a light on how we can use the ever-growing deluge of data to improve our understanding of the worldNature

Neste livro que já se tornou um clássico, David Spiegelhalter — um dos maiores estatísticos da atualidade — combina a visão incomparável de um especialista com o entusiasmo de um aficionado e oferece

Probably the UKs greatest living statistician TelegraphFrom the UKs statistical national treasure, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertaintyWe live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we dont know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know

Combinando la visión de un experto con el entusiasmo lúdico de un aficionado, ‘El arte de la estadística’ es la guía definitiva de la estadística que necesitamos.La guía definitiva del pensamiento es