George Friedman

The new book is called The Next Decade. Titles notwithstanding, this book is very different from its predecessor, The Next 100 Years. The last book was about a century, a time frame in which all things are impersonal. A decade is the opposite, because it is filled with individual decisions and uncertainty. It not only requires a very different type of forecasting, it requires the opposite sensibility. In a century, leadership counts for little. In a decade, it counts for a great deal. The book is framed by two concepts. The first is the idea that the United States is an unintended empire of vast power, deeply interlocked with the affairs of most of the world. It is not a question of whether Americans want this empire; it is impossible to let go. The question is what to do with it. Like a child you did not expect and may not have welcomed, it is still your responsibility. The second concept is what I call the Machiavellian Presidency. I consider three presidents exemplary: Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt and Reagan. Each possessed a deep moral core. Each fully understood the uses of power, lying and violating the Constitution and human rights to achieve the respective moral necessities of the abolition of slavery, the destruction of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan, and the destruction of the Soviet Union. When we recall that Roosevelt allied with Stalin to defeat Hitler, we capture the Machiavellian President. The United States has stumbled into empire. It now faces the crisis of Rome that the empire will annihilate the republic. I argue that of all the institutions of our Constitution, it is the president who can preserve the republic while managing the empire. I also argue that the greatest threat to the republic is living in denial about what the United States has become. The issue, then, is how to manage the unintended and unwanted in the next decade.

The next decade. The author of the acclaimed "New York Times "bestseller "The Next 100 Years" now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade's leaders. The next ten years will be a time of massive transition. The wars in the Islamic world will be subsiding, and terrorism will become something we learn to live with. China will be encountering its crisis. We will be moving from a time when financial crises dominate the world to a time when labor shortages will begin to dominate. The new century will be taking shape in the next decade. In "The Next Decade," George Friedman offers readers a pro-vocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immedi-ate future. Using Machiavelli's "The Prince "as a model, Friedman focuses on the world's leaders--particularly the American president--and with his trusted geopolitical insight analyzes the complex chess game they will all have to play. The book also asks how to be a good president in a decade of extraordinary challenge, and puts the world's leaders under a microscope to explain how they will arrive at the decisions they will make--and the consequences these actions will have for us all.

George FriedmanDubbed by Barrons as The Shadow CIA, George Friedmans global intelligence company, Stratfor, has provided analysis to Fortune 500 companies, news outlets, and even the U.S. government. Now Friedman delivers the geopolitical story that the mainstream media has been unable to uncover the startling truth behind Americas foreign policy and war effort in Afghanistan, Iraq, and beyond. Stratfor, one of the worlds most respected private global intelligence firms, has an unmatched ability to provide clear perspective on the current geopolitical map. In America's Secret War, George Friedman identifies the United States most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of 9/11and the Bush administrations motivation for the war in Iraq. It describes in eye-opening detail Americas covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism: Not only are U.S. armies in combat on every continent, but since 9/11 the intelligence services of dozens of nations have been operating in close partnership with the CIA. Drawing on Stratfors vast information-gathering network, Friedman presents an insightful picture of todays world that goes far beyond what is reported on television and in other news media. Al Qaedas war plans and how they led to 9/11 The threat of a suitcase nuclear bomb in New York and how that changed the course of the war. The deal the U.S. made with Russia and Iran which made the invasion of Afghanistan possible and how those deals affectthe United States today. How fear and suspicion of the Saudis after 9-11 tore apart the Bush-Saudi relationship and why Saudi Arabias closest friends in the administration became the Saudis worst enemies. The real reasons behind George W. Bushs invasion of Iraq and how WMD became the cover for a much deeper game. How the CIA miscalculated about Saddam Husseins and Irans real plans, leaving the U.S. bogged down in the war. How the w

En su esperado y provocador nuevo libro, George Friedman nos ofrece una lúcida y muy legible previsión de los cambios que podemos esperar en todo el mundo durante el siglo XXI. Nos explica dónde y porque estallaran las guerras en el futuro, y como las nuevas tecnologias y tendencias culturales alteraran la forma en que afrontamos el nuevo siglo. The Next 100 Years se basa en una fascinante exploracion de la historia y la geopolitica con patrones que se remontan cientos de años. Friedman demuestra que estamos ahora, por primera vez en medio milenio, en los albores de una nueva era incluyendo: La guerra EE.UU jihadista se sustituira por una segunda verdadera guerra fria con Rusia. China sera objeto de una importante crisis interna y Mexico sera una emergente potencia mundial. Una nueva guerra mundial se desarrollara a mediados de siglo entre los Estados Unidos y una inesperada coalicion de la Europa del Este, Eurasia y el Lejano Oriente, pero los ejercitos seran mucho menores y las guerras seran menos mortales. La tecnologia se centrara en el espacio para los principales usos militares y un espectacular y nuevo recurso energetico tendra implicaciones radicales sobre el medio ambiente. Estados Unidos experimentara una Edad de Oro en la segunda mitad del siglo. Escrito con profundo conocimiento y analisis reflexivo, George Friedman, un reconocido experto en geopolitica y pronosticos, presenta un panorama fascinante de lo que nos deparara el futuro proximo.

The author of "The Future of War" now identifies the United States'' most dangerous enemies, delving into everything from presidential strategies of the last quarter century to hidden reasons behind the attack of 9/11 to the true aim of the war in Iraq.

A fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.In his thought-provoking new book, George Friedman, founder of STRATFOR-the preeminent private intelligence and forecasting firm-focuses on what he knows best, the future. Positing that civilization is at the dawn of a new era, he offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century all based on his own thorough analysis and research. For example, The U.S.-Jihadist war will be replaced by a new cold war with Russia; China's role as a world power will diminish; Mexico will become an important force on the geopolitical stage; and new technologies and cultural trends will radically alter the way we live (and fight wars). Riveting reading from first to last, The Next 100 Years is a fascinating exploration of what the future holds for all of us.

In his long-awaited and provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future-offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era-with changes in store.

Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world. George FriedmanIn his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the futureoffering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new erawith changes in store, including: The U.S.-Jihadist war will concludereplaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. Technology will focus on spaceboth for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.

Em seu aclamado The Next 100 Years (Os Próximos 100 Anos), best-seller listado no The New York Times, George Friedman, especialista em previsões de geopolítica e fundador da Stratfor, apresentou um q

*One of Bloombergs Best Books of the Year*The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture.In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail. American history must be viewed in cyclesparticularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examplesthe Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020sa time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world. Friedmans analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.

The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decades leaders. In the long view, history is seen as a series of eventsbut the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedmananalyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular onthe American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.

Pronóstico intrigante y documentado de los acontecimientos que marcarán la economía y la geopolítica mundial en el siglo XXI.A mediados de este siglo el mundo será escenario de una nueva guerra global, esta vez entre Estados Unidos y una hoy aun inesperada coalicion formada por la Europa del Este, Eurasia y el Lejano Oriente. Eso si, los ejercitos seran mas reducidos y los efectos menos mortales que en las dos anteriores contiendas mundiales, puesto que en parte los enfrentamientos tendran lugar en el espacio. Este no es el argumento de una nueva pelicula de ciencia fi ccion, sino una de las solidas previsiones de George Friedman, contenidas en esta obra tan intrigante como lucida y plenamente documentada.

En un siglo cuentan los acontecimientos; en un decenio, las personas y sus decisiones.La próxima decada será escenario de grandes cambios que darán forma al siglo XXI. Las guerras en el mundo islámico perderan fuerza y aprenderemos a convivir con el terrorismo. China entrara en crisis, mientras el mundo pasara de un periodo dominado por las debacles financieras a otro dominado por la escasez del empleo. Turquia sera potencia dominante en Oriente Medio y, en el Mediterraneo, Polonia hara frente a una nueva Rusia, al tiempo que dentro de las fronteras de la Union Europea se viviran tensiones extraordinarias Estos son algunos de los documentados pronosticos del autor de Los proximos cien años, George Friedman, para este decenio.