IAN BREMMER

Ian Bremmer, una de las máximas autoridades mundiales en análisis de riesgo político y una de las voces más escuchadas en Wall Street y Washington, ha elaborado una teoría sencilla y contundente, como la letra que la representa. La curva J es un nuevo modelo que intenta explicar por que algunos paises progresan y otros se estancan o se hunden.Un pais cerrado, sostiene Bremmer, que goza de relativa estabilidad en un contexto de minimo desarrollo o de franco atraso, se ubica en el extremo izquierdo de la J. Luego, si ese pais comienza a abrirse al mundo, su transicion incluira riesgos que pueden concluir en una crisis politica, economica y posiblemente social. Y solo aquellos paises que superan la hondonada de la curva de la J pueden luego ascender por su eje recto, el de la estabilidad combinada con desarrollo y apertura. La diferencia entre ambas situaciones -estabilidad y apertura- dibuja una curva que tiene forma de J. La curva J es un modelo de riesgo politico y tambien de riesgo de inversion, porque ayuda a prever los shocks economicos. La propuesta de esta teoria es tratar de favorecer el desplazamiento de la curva hacia la derecha (apertura) en las mejores condiciones de estabilidad, sin caer en imprecisas politicas "de sentido comun". Bremmer examina doce paises, agrupados por bloques, y en cada caso hace resumenes historicos, analisis de actualidad y alerta sobre los peligros que avizora. Con muchos adeptos y otros tantos detractores, la teoria de la curva J se encuentra en el centro del debate politico y economico actual, y teoricos renombrados como Francis Fukuyama defienden la utilidad de su propuesta: retratar la complejidad de los estados actuales, predecir su probable dinamica y anticiparse a los hechos.

Locate nations on the J Curve -- left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The Wests isolation of Kim Jong-ils North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen Chinas economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curve points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.

New York Times BestsellerRenowned political scientist Ian Bremmer draws lessons from global challenges of the past 100 yearsincluding the pandemicto show how we can respond to three great crises unfolding over the next decade.In this revelatory, unnerving, and ultimately hopeful book, Bremmer details how domestic and international conflicts leave us unprepared for a trio of looming crisesglobal health emergencies, transformative climate change, and the AI revolution. Today, Americans cannot reach consensus on any significant political issue, and US and Chinese leaders behave as if theyre locked in a new Cold War. We are squandering opportunities to meet the challenges that will soon confront us all.In coming years, humanity will face viruses deadlier and more infectious than Covid. Intensifying climate change will put tens of millions of refugees in flight and require us to reimagine how we live our daily lives. Most dangerous of all, new technologies will reshape the geopolitical order, disrupting our livelihoods and destabilizing our societies faster than we can grasp and address their implications. The good news? Some farsighted political leaders, business decision-makers, and individual citizens are already collaborating to tackle all these crises. The question that should keep us awake is whether they will work well and quickly enough to limit the falloutand, most importantly, whether we can use these crises to innovate our way toward a better world.Drawing on strategies both time-honored and cutting-edge, from the Marshall Plan to the Green New Deal, The Power of Crisisprovides a roadmap for survivingeven thriving inthe 21st century. Bremmer shows governments, corporations, and every concerned citizen how we can use these coming crises to create the worldwide prosperity and opportunity that 20th-century globalism promised but failed to deliver.

Geopolitical thought leader Ian Bremmer issues a clarion call to America: redefine your place in the world, or the world will define it for youAmericas identity abroad has long been defined by the second World War and years of Cold War struggle. But the new America has changed; its role and identity are in flux - and with them, the global balance of power.In Three Choices for a Superpower, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, Ian Bremmer, calls for a completely new definition of America as a superpower - one that adheres to distinct priorities and values. He outlines the three choices facing the new America:Be independent: America does not have an endless supply of blood and finances to spend on other nations. Rather, America will fare much better if it devotes its energies and resources to rebuilding strength from within. Moneyball: America cannot afford every foreign fight in support of American values, but they must defend their interests wherever they are threatened. They must make tough decisions intelligently, with an open admission of Americas limitations.Be indispensable: To think that America can operate autonomously from the rest of the world is not only ignorant but also extremely dangerous. The world relies on American leadership, and America has international interests - they must continue their role as an indispensable nation and remain actively involved abroad.As the 2016 presidential election approaches, America needs to define its responsibilities, opportunities, and most importantly, its limits. A foreign policy divided against itself cannot stand; as the worlds greatest superpower, America must choose which path it will follow into the future.

Following the acclaim for The End of the Free Market, Ian Bremmer is back with Every Nation for Itself, where he addresses the next big issue for the shifting world economy.Smart and snappy ... provides the most cogent prediction of how the politics of a post-America world will play outNew StatesmanWhat happens when nobodys running the world?The United States is in financial crisis and cant hold onto the reins of the G-20. But China has no interest in international leadership, Europe is trying to save the euro, and emerging powers like Brazil and India are focused on domestic development. No government has the time, resources or political capital needed to take an international lead. The world power structure is about to have a vacancy...at the top.Welcome to the G-Zero world, in which no single country has the power to shape a truly global agenda. That means we are about to see 20 years of conflict over economics, finance and climate change.Bestselling author and strategist Ian Bremmer reveals how world powers are rapidly turning into gated communities, locked in competition. Who will prevail?A prodigy in the US global commentariat. Mr Bremmers rehearsal of the consequences should make us all wise upFinancial TimesAn author who is always full of insightsGeorge OsborneIan Bremmer is the president of the worlds leading global political risk research and consulting firm, Eurasia Group. He has written for the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Newsweek, and Harvard Business Review. His six books include The J Curve and The End Of The Free Market.

Un libro indispensable para entender los retos del siglo XXI a nivel mundial El autor es un renombrado politólogo que recoge las enseñanzas que ha tenido el mundo en los últimos 100 años para ver cómo podemos enfrentar las amenazas que se vienen: el calentamiento global, la inteligencia artificial y una pandemia mas grave que el Covid-19. Es un ensayo muy interesante que, a pesar de las tres amenazas que ya son una realidad, es optimista porque segun el autor, tenemos las soluciones a la mano.

IAN BREMMER WAS NAMED LINKEDINS #1 TOP INFLUENCER in 2017--------------Required reading to help repair a world in pieces and build a world at peace- António Guterres, United Nations Secretary General --------------Ian Bremmer is provocative, controversial, and always intelligent about the state of the world, which he knows so well- Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund --------------From Brexit, to Donald Trump, to extremist parties in Europe and the developing world, populism has dominated recent headlines. But what explains the rise of leaders who stoke nationalist anger in their countries, from Le Pen to Erdogan? How long will the populist wave last? Who will be the winners and losers in this climate, and how can we defend the values of democracy, free trade and international cooperation? No one is better suited to explore these questions than Ian Bremmer, the CEO of the Eurasia Group and acclaimed Time magazine columnist. Analysing the social, economic and technological forces fuelling this new wave of populism, Bremmer explains why were witnessing a rejection of the democratic, global, cosmopolitan trends of the late 20th century. Us vs. Them is a definitive guide to navigating the shifting political landscape, for businesses looking to weather and survive the populist storm.

Understanding the rise of state capitalism and its threat to global free markets The End of the Free Market details the growing phenomenon of state capitalism, a system in which governments drive local economies through ownership of market-dominant companies and large pools of excess capital, using them for political gain. This trend threatens Americas competitive edge and the conduct of free markets everywhere. An expert on the intersection of economics and politics, Ian Bremmer has followed the rise of state-owned firms in China, Russia, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, Iran, Venezuela, and elsewhere. He demonstrates the growing challenge that state capitalism will pose for the entire global economy. Among the questions addressed: Are we on the brink of a new kind of Cold War, one that pits competing economic systems in a battle for dominance? Can free market countries compete with state capitalist powerhouses over relations with countries that have elements of both systems-like India, Brazil, and Mexico? Does state capitalism have staying power? This guide to the next big global economic trend includes useful insights for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone who wants to understand important emerging changes in international politics and the global economy.

In Whats Next, Ian Bremmer, author of Every Nation for Itself and The End of the Free Market, and Douglas Rediker provide a guide to the major global issues and policies sure to dominate headlines in the next few years.In the last four years, the world has suffered a financial market meltdown and subsequent global recession. The eurozone crisis looms, the Middle East is in turmoil, and a shifting power balance between emerging markets and developed economies is reordering the global economy as a whole. Facing these new challenges, what will the future hold?Ian Bremmer and Douglas Rediker, together with experts, analysts, analyze these global issues and provide a template to understand how they will change our world in the next few years. Focusing in on the most volatile, powerful, or misunderstood developments, the authors examine the risks to the IMF, Russias future, the roles of emerging markets, and the future of US foreign policy. They assess the political roots of the eurozone crisis, the key questions surrounding Afghanistan, important trends and tensions underway in Asia Pacific, and the rise of regionalism in the wake of fracturing international governance.Ian Bremmer is the founder and president of Eurasia Group. He has authored several books, including the national bestsellers, Every Nation for Itself and The End of the Free Market. He is a contributor for the Financial Times A-List and Reuters.com, and served as chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk. Presently, he teaches at Columbia University.Douglas Rediker previously represented the United States on the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund. Following almost two decades in international financial markets, he co-founded and directed the Global Strategic Finance Initiative at the New America Foundation, where he is currently a Senior Fellow. He served as chairman of the Global Agenda Council on Geopolitical Risk